嵇少丞:意大利地震学家被判刑 对科学发展不可低估
地震学家判刑6年，对未来科学发展不可低估！
意大利6位地震学家和一名政府官员被判刑6年，不是因为他们没能准确地预报地震，而是无中生有地预报“不地震”。受害者的家庭成员不是不知道在目前的科学技术条件下科学家还无法预报地震，而是认为，地震学家不能没有任何科学根据就向公众宣布“不地震”，因为这是违法科学伦理的。如果因为他们没能准确地预报了地震，被判刑，那是冤枉他们。毫无根据的预报“不地震”，被判刑，他们也算是罪有应得。
以此为案例，今后对一切类似的情况都可以进行法制处理，例如，科研中的弄虚作假、编造数据、实验结果、科学家忽悠公众的言论等等，例如，气候变化（过去气候变化研究中存在大量的弄虚作假）、药物的疗效、地质灾害的预测、科研成果的应用性，会使得科学家面对公众的言论更加严谨。
Jail Italian scientists over L'Aquila and what's next? Suing Michael Fish?
Michael Fishbecame infamous in the wake of the Great Storm of 1987a few hours before the storm broke, on 15 October 1987, he said during a forecast: "Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricaneon the way... well, if you're watching, don't worry, there isn't!". But Michael was wrong, that evening, the worst stormto hit South East Englandsince 1703 caused record damage and killed 18 people.
Sending scientists to prison for misstating earthquake risk is not a great way to encourage others to take responsibility in future
Martin Robbins
guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 23 October 2012 13.12 BST
The accusation they make is not that experts failed to predict the L'Aquila earthquake, but that they failed to properly assess and communicate the risks.' Photograph: AP
On 6 April 2009, an earthquake struck the Italian town of L'Aquila, a medieval settlement built on an ancient lake nestled in the Apennines. More than 300 people died, and 20,000 buildings were destroyed. This much is clear, but much of the rest of the story lies buried in an avalanche of distortion and misinformation.
It began with Giampaolo Giuliani, a lab technician and would-be earthquake predictor. Tremors had been occurring in the region since January, but Giuliani used his own system – a discredited approach based on measuring radon gas released by stressed rock – to predict a major earthquake on 29 March. Groups toured the area with megaphones warning residents to leave their homes, causing considerable panic, but no quake materialised.
作者: 百姓通谱网
责任编辑：百姓通谱网